Are We Coming Up on the End of the Jobs Boom? | No BS Job Search Advice
By Jeff Altman, The Big Game Hunter
Someone wrote:
IMHO this super-hot job market will come to an end soon. Why? The US just about regained pre-pandemic employment levels. The Labor Department reports nearly record low unemployment rate of 3.6%, regaining almost 90% of the 22 million jobs lost in early 2020. The participation rate (another measurement in economics) of Millennials and Gen X (ages 25 to 54) is over 80%. So, what does this all mean? Some sectors are still hiring but it is not so robust anymore. People looking for a job should get energized fast because the party can be over pretty soon.
I replied:
It is a mistake to look at the job market as one monolithic entity. It never has been and still isn’t. The U6 rate is still at 7.1% (down from 9.4 at the end of 2021). People are still looking for fulltime jobs.
In addition, the government measures jobs. Not full time jobs. Thus, if someone works remote 10 hours for a company in Chicago, 3 hours for a company in New Hampshire and 20 hours for a government contractor in DC, that is 3 jobs.
3 MILLION PEOPLE left the job market due to death and retirement (some Boomers actually retire. Go figure). What’s missing, however, are the people who are not counted as being unemployed because they don’t collect unemployment anymore.
AND we are already in a period where turnover will be higher because of inflation. After all if a company gives a 5% raise, that leaves someone 5% behind on cost of living because of inflation (government takes a cut of the raise, lowering it to a 3.5% real dollar increase). Headline inflation is 8.5%. Next month will be higher because the PPI is 11.2%. Lots of people will be looking for more money.
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Jeff Altman, The Big Game Hunter is a coach who worked as a recruiter for what seems like one hundred years. His work involves career coaching, as well as executive job search coaching, job coaching, and interview coaching. He is the host of “No BS Job Search Advice Radio,” the #1 podcast in iTunes for job search with over 2300 episodes.
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