The Sad State of Jobs in the US
By Jeff Altman, The Big Game Hunter
A Bain venture leader and former startup CEO shared his thoughts on LinkedIn: “The U.S. economy continues to add jobs despite rising inflation and interest rates, according to the latest jobs report. Unemployment is near a 50-year low, and the economy has outperformed expectations for 14 months in a row.
The inflation surge is not primarily driven by wage inflation, but rather by factors such as energy prices, food prices, and shortages. Some economists suggest that we are seeing a ‘price-price spiral’ where businesses raise prices because previous price hikes were successful, rather than a wage-price spiral.
The Federal Reserve has approved an interest rate hike, taking benchmark borrowing costs to their highest level in more than 22 years. The federal funds rate is now in a target range of 5.25%-5.5%. Despite the rate hikes, economic growth has been surprisingly resilient, with GDP growth tracking a 2.4% annualized rate in the second quarter.
The robust job market and resilient economic growth present opportunities for companies to hire talent for growth. However, the rising interest rates and inflation could increase operational costs, potentially impacting hiring budgets. Companies need to strategize their growth plans considering these macroeconomic factors. They may need to focus on improving operational efficiencies and investing in employee retention strategies to navigate the current economic landscape.”
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I replied:
Respectfully, GDP is not inflation-indexed. If it were, we would recognize negative growth in GDP more easily. As for employment, there is a bifurcated job market where low-wage professionals and government employees make up the bulk of new hiring. LinkedIn’s target audience of professional workers has borne the brunt of the Fed’s policies to slow hiring to curb inflation. Part of the reason for the low unemployment rate is that since the rate hikes and layoffs began, not everyone among the laid-off has landed in new roles hence they are no longer collecting unemployment payments and are disappearing from BLS statistics. The number of hashtagopentowork messages in my feed from laid-off workers has dramatically increased since last year and those in talent acquisition and other administrative roles have grown a lot.
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