THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION — SEPTEMBER 2023
By Jeff Altman, The Big Game Hunter
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 336,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality; government; health care; professional, scientific, and technical services; and social assistance.”
Let’s dig in deeper.
Nothing much changed
“The unemployment rate held at 3.8 percent in September, and the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 6.4 million”
“Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (3.1 percent), teenagers (11.6 percent), Whites (3.4 percent), Blacks (5.7 percent), Asians (2.8 percent), and Hispanics (4.6 percent) showed little or no change in September.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.2 million in September. The long-term unemployed accounted for 19.1 percent of all unemployed persons.
Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.8 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.4 percent, were unchanged over the month.
The number of persons employed part-time for economic reasons, at 4.1 million, changed little in September. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part-time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
Specific Job Categories
Leisure and hospitality added 96,000.
Government employment increased by 73,000. Over the month, job gains occurred in state government education (+29,000) and in local government, excluding education (+27,000). Employment in government is slightly below (-9,000) its February 2020 level.
Health care added 41,000 jobs.
Employment in professional, scientific, and technical services increased by 29,000.
Social assistance added 25,000 jobs.
Transportation and warehousing changed little (+9,000).
Employment in information changed little in September (-5,000).
Within the industry, employment in motion picture and sound recording industries continued to trend down (-7,000) and has declined by 45,000 since May, reflecting the impact of labor disputes. (NOTE: When people are on strike that is a job lost until the strike ends)
ADP
In contrast, two days before, ADP reported, “Private employers added 89,000 jobs in September, which is well below expectations. This is a significant drop from the 180,000 upwardly revised figure for August.”
When you subtract government jobs, healthcare and social assistance jobs which tend to be government-funded, it brings job creation to 197000 but almost half are in leisure and hospitality which no one here works in.
Which of these two reports seems more accurate to you?
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