Originally published by the USBLS
This article uses data from the Current Employment Statistics survey to examine employment changes a decade after total nonfarm employment peaked in January 2008. The analysis reveals that while some industries recovered fully and subsequently expanded, others have yet to do so.
Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey data on total nonfarm employment, a coincident indicator, help identify key turning points in the economy.1 The relationship between payroll employment and business cycle dates from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does not fully emerge until the CES program has finalized, benchmarked, and seasonally adjusted its data and the NBER has declared the business cycle dates.2 CES employment peaks and troughs can be initially determined as early as 6 months after a high or low employment level. Therefore, a relationship can be established well after a business cycle turn. Nonetheless, payroll employment peaks and troughs track closely with NBER’s business cycle dates.
The NBER is a private, nonpartisan organization disseminating research findings among academics, policymakers, and business professionals. Part of its work involves identifying U.S. business cycles. It defines a recession as a widespread decline in economic activity, with significant dropoffs in real gross domestic product, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. Contractions begin after the peak of a business cycle and end after the trough. The NBER determined that the Great Recession started in December 2007 and lasted through June 2009.3 (See table 1.)
